Consumer confidence, oil prices, wars... and your sanity

Shit’s pretty crazy on the news right now hey.

I feel like we’re still getting over the ramifications of Covid… now this?

Each time we have one of these global catastrophe events, people panic and get herded into flight, fight or freeze mode.

Which for us means lower revenue. Less buyers willing to spend because they’re in freeze mode, waiting for things to get “safer” for them.

April has been slower this year. For me and pretty much everyone I talk to in ecom right now.

Easter. School holidays (Australia). Cost of living fear. Global noise every six hours. Pick your reason… they’re all contributing.

And if you’re just staring at your revenue number going “what the hell is going on”… I get it.

Revenue is actually one of the worst ways to understand what’s happening in your business.

Every day I look at my Daily Clarity Dashboard to get a finger on the pulse of my business.

April month to date

April forecast

April this year vs April last year

Annual forecast

I look at revenue, store sessions, CPA, AOV, marketing cost ratio, brand share % and more.

I see everything from a big picture perspective instead of in isolation, so the story it tells me is the whole truth, not just a part of it.

Then I can see… is this a me problem or a market problem?

Am I down because something is broken, or am I down because this always happens around this time and I just forgot?

Turns out, one of my stores always slows down around Easter. Every year. Like clockwork.

I know this because I’ve got the data going back years.

So instead of panicking, I look at the data.

If the numbers are all trending the same direction together… it’s usually the market or seasonality. Not the store.

And when it is, you don’t burn everything down. You tighten ad spend, stay the course, and use the quiet time to build the things that compound later.

When it’s something else… the DCD tells you that too.

That’s the difference between running scared and running informed.

And it’s the first thing we implement in your business inside Escape Velocity™.

— Matthew